Research on African Financial Markets

The Hidden Covariance in BRVM 30 Portfolios

How does measured BRVM 30 portfolio risk change from one to twenty sessions under different portfolio weights?

This study reconstructs all 30 BRVM 30 securities from official market bulletins and examines how daily covariance scales across institutional risk horizons under float-cap, equal and inverse-volatility portfolio constructions. It combines a full horizon-risk term structure with activity diagnostics and independent daily price-limit sequences to distinguish portfolio-weight effects from competing market-microstructure explanations.

Long-End Differentials in Côte d'Ivoire's Evaluated Eurobond Yields

Does the long end of Côte d'Ivoire's Eurobond curve retain a yield differential after currency-specific reference rates and contractual cash flows are taken into account?

Cash-flow-aware reference matching across the EUR and USD curve samples.

Ghana's Post-Restructuring Eurobond Yield Compression

How much of Ghana's 2025 yield compression survives controls for US reference rates and global credit conditions?

A cash-flow-aware attribution of the restructured USD curve, reference rates and global credit conditions.

Nigerian Bank Recapitalisation: Offer Structure and Equity Repricing

Did Nigerian bank recapitalisation offer structure rank relative equity returns after definitive terms became public?

This study separates offer size, cash call, pre-emption structure and headline discount across eight completed bank recapitalisations.

Senegal's Fiscal Deterioration and Sovereign Eurobond Repricing

Did Senegal's hard-currency sovereign bonds reprice relative to regional curves during the February 2025 fiscal-information sequence?

This study examines Senegal's EUR and USD sovereign curves during the February 2025 fiscal-information sequence. It compares each eligible bond with maturity-matched regional curves and tests whether the relative movement survives an additional sovereign benchmark and observable global-risk controls. The design separates Senegal-specific repricing from reference-rate movements and common regional risk, then places the subsequent rating action within the same information chronology.

Dangote Refinery: When Does a Mega-Listing Reshape NGX?

Under which full-capitalisation and accessible-float combinations would a Dangote Refinery listing change NGX concentration and turnover requirements?

This ex-ante market-structure study separates full market capitalisation, accessible float, index-adjusted investability and realised trading liquidity. It maps the concentration threshold and turnover-rate requirements that could alter NGX structure, without treating a prospective transaction as a realised event or an execution-capacity estimate.

Does Nigeria's Sovereign Bond Market Anticipate Rating Actions?

Does Nigeria's sovereign curve contain unusual and repeatable information about subsequent rating actions?

This study tests whether Nigeria's US-dollar sovereign curve contains decision-useful information about subsequent rating actions. It separates issuer-specific repricing from global risk, benchmarks historical negative episodes and the May 2026 positive action against matched non-event periods, and evaluates whether directional moves are sufficiently unusual to support an early-warning process.

BVMAC: Do Stale Prices Understate Risk When Trading Resumes?

This study examines whether price staleness, measured as time since the last trade, contains additional information about return risk at the next trade. The empirical design separates a stale-price effect from the normal accumulation of risk over time.