Speaking in Tangier, Manuel highlights the need for a rules-based global order and greater scrutiny of credit rating agencies to protect Africa's future.
African finance and planning ministers must pursue continental renewal and self-reliance in response to the rising frequency and severity of global shocks, former South African finance minister Trevor Manuel has said.
Delivering the Adebayo Adedeji Lecture in Tangier, Morocco, this week at the 58th Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Manuel warned that the surge in oil prices caused by conflict in the Middle East poses a serious threat to African economies.
Manuel, who also served as Lead Adviser and Chairperson of the Africa Expert Panel, established in 2025 to support South Africa's G20 Presidency, stated that there is nothing in historical data that could have predicted such volatility. He said that these are the consequences of unilateral decisions, the effects of which remain largely unknown.
He cautioned that the resulting energy and agricultural shocks would hit the poorest hardest, as they spend a larger share of their income on food and transport.
Reflecting on progress during South Africa's 2025 G20 presidency, Manuel highlighted the role of the Africa Expert Panel in elevating African priorities. Its report, Growth, Debt and Development: Opportunities for a New African Partnership, calls for tackling debt, mobilising domestic resources, reforming global finance, and strengthening Pan-African partnerships. He noted that while the panel's recommendations received support at both the G20 and African Union levels, implementation now rests with African institutions, particularly the Economic Commission for Africa.
The former minister pointed to recent statements by US leaders as evidence of a changing global order, arguing that it is no longer grounded in rules but in the misguided notion that might makes right. He emphasised the importance of a rules-based global system and urged African nations to resist becoming mere implementers of the hegemon's views.
Manuel encouraged African leaders to negotiate fairer terms with global investors to break the cycle of exporting raw materials. Local value addition, he argued, is key to ensuring that Africa's wealth is more equitably shared. He stated, "Africa has to count for much more than merely being a piece of land in which foreigners can come and dig holes, remove the wealth, and take it from pit to port."
He called on ministers to challenge the norms that oppress and exploit the continent's people and resources. He also urged greater scrutiny of credit rating agencies, criticising their errors and historical failures. "Credit rating agencies hold considerable power to shape borrowing costs, and we need to hold them accountable," he said. "Just recently, Standard and Poor's, one of the primary ratings agencies, made a major mistake in their analysis of Africa. They got the map wrong, misidentified countries, and as a result, everything that followed was incorrect."
The Economic Commission for Africa launched the Adebayo Adedeji Lecture in 2014 to honour the late Adedeji for his intellectual and policy contributions to African development. Adedeji served as Executive Secretary of the ECA from 1975 to 1991.
To honour his legacy, Manuel said Africa must accelerate industrialisation, foster regional integration, invest in digital infrastructure, and leverage its young population.