Africa can gain from shifting sands of world order

The global order is undergoing an unprecedented transition. Power is no longer concentrated in a single centre or moving at a uniform pace. Instead, influence is increasingly dispersed across multiple actors, unevenly distributed across domains, and advancing at different speeds. What is emerging is a fragmented but still interconnected system: a multi-speed, multipolar world with no direct modern precedent.

This is the context for a new paper from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change with consultants JPMorganChase: World rewired: navigating a multi-speed, multipolar order. It argues that a convergence of structural forces - geopolitical rivalry, technological disruption and political recalibration - is reshaping the operating environment for governments, businesses and investors.

The global system is not collapsing, but being rewired, creating new risks alongside new opportunities.

In the foreword, Institute executive chairman Tony Blair and JPMorganChase CEO Jamie Dimon describe the current moment as one of recalibration rather than decline. It is an era, they argue, in which agility, resilience and credible leadership matter more than ever, as old assumptions about power, alignment and growth are steadily eroded.

Africa illustrates these dynamics with particular clarity. Long viewed as peripheral to the global economy, the continent is now central to many of its most consequential shifts. From critical mineral supply chains and demographic scale to digital leapfrogging and geopolitical alignment, Africa is both shaping - and being shaped by - the emergence of a multipolar order.

For African governments and businesses, these forces are not abstract. They are immediate, material and potentially transformative. The defining question is no longer whether the global order is changing, but how Africa positions itself within it - whether it becomes a decisive power centre in the new system or remains primarily a venue for external competition.

The forces reshaping global power dynamics - fragmentation, emerging pockets of cohesion and intensifying US-China rivalry - all intersect squarely with African political and economic realities.

But unlike previous cycles, Africa approaches this moment not as a passive bystander but as a region with growing demographic heft, resource leverage and strategic optionality.

Demographics as destiny

Africa's population will nearly double to 2.5bn by mid-century. By the 2030s the continent will host the world's largest workforce and one of its most dynamic consumer markets.

This demographic surge is a strategic advantage in a world where labour is ageing in most major economies. Already, African markets are attracting interest from global manufacturers, tech firms and service providers seeking new growth frontiers.

But the report is clear: demographics alone guarantee nothing.

Growth remains uneven, with Nigeria and Ethiopia driving much of the expansion while others stagnate. Rising debt service costs, exceeding 20% of fiscal revenue in some countries, constrain the very public investments needed to transform raw population numbers into productive economic capacity.

Whether Africa's youth becomes the engine of global productivity or a source of chronic instability will depend on institutional strength, industrial strategy and the ability to compete in a world where supply chains are becoming both more localised and more politically contested.

From extraction to power

In a multipolar world resources confer power, and Africa is exceptionally endowed. The continent holds 30% of global mineral reserves and much of the world's supply of transition minerals such as cobalt, manganese, graphite and platinum.

This gives Africa something it has not always had: leverage.

Competition for these resources is intensifying. China already dominates mining and processing, giving it outsized influence in global battery and clean-tech supply chains. Europe is attempting to diversify through its €300bn ($353bn) Global Gateway Initiative. The United States has woven critical minerals into its economic diplomacy, as seen in agreements such as the 2025 Washington Accords involving the DRC and Rwanda.

But mineral wealth will translate into strategic power only if African states avoid the familiar trap of exporting raw materials and importing finished value.

Real advantage lies not in extraction but in processing, refining, manufacturing and ecosystem development - areas where regional cooperation under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could be transformative.

In a world being rewired, value chains matter more than volumes, and Africa has the opportunity to position itself at multiple points.

African agency is rising

Engagement with Africa from external powers is rising. Today the continent has a wider range of partners than at any time since independence. China's Belt and Road footprint remains deep. The Gulf states have rapidly emerged as major financial and strategic actors, especially i ports, logistics and energy. The EU and US are renewing their focus, seeking not only resources but partners in digital infrastructure, climate transition and supply chain resilience.

African states are increasingly strategic actors, leveraging opportunities, capital inflows and diplomatic partnerships to advance national and regional priorities. This is visible in how great-power competition is channelled through African priorities. Renewed US and European engagement in the Lobito Corridor - widely seen as an alternative to China's Belt and Road routes - shows African governments drawing alternative partners into infrastructure and logistics, increasing leverage without exclusive alignment.

The challenge is not over whether Africa has external partners, but how it harnesses the situation for long-term advantage.

The greatest risks to African potential

For all its promise, the continent faces real headwinds. Successive coups in West and Central Africa have eroded investor confidence. Conflict in the Sahel, Horn of Africa and Great Lakes region continues to divert resources and fracture regional coordination. Weak institutions - from procurement to legal systems - undermine the long-term predictability that businesses require.

In a world where agility is a competitive advantage, governance fragility is a major constraint. Our report argues that agility is emerging as the new strategic edge for governments and firms alike. For Africa, that means accelerating regulatory reform, improving public service delivery, enabling freer movement of goods and capital, and fostering industrial clusters that can adapt to rapidly changing global standards.

The continent cannot afford to treat governance as a secondary priority. It is the foundation of competitiveness.

New world order: A moment of opportunity

The rewiring of the global order is not happening around Africa; it is happening through Africa. The continent's minerals power the energy transition. Its markets anchor investor strategy. Its diplomacy increasingly shapes multilateral negotiations, from climate and debt to digital governance.

But the next decade will be pivotal. If Africa strengthens institutions, expands infrastructure and deepens industrial capacity, it will not merely respond to global shifts, it will help set the terms. It will influence the standards, supply chains and investment flows that define the next era of globalisation.

If it fails to act, it risks becoming the terrain on which others compete rather than the actor shaping that competition.

The message is ultimately one of opportunity. The global system remains governable. Those willing to operate constructively - to build coalitions, innovate and lead - will shape the future. Africa can be among them. But the moment for strategic clarity is now.